Uncertain predictions at the end of 2023
As another year draws to a close and the mind shifts from the work not yet done to the presents not yet bought, so there is the expectation that we’ll predict the future. At moments like this I remember Chris Yapp’s quote :
“the more certain you are about the future, the more likely you are to be wrong”
— and so it is with lots of uncertainty that I make the following comments. Not that there is any suggestion being uncertain increases the likelihood of being right!
There are hundreds of trends and insight reports available and if you scan through a few you’ll spot some familiar themes. We all expect AI to have an impact on the way we work and learn in the year ahead. The pace of change is unlikely to be any different to the past.
As for the future of work then we may move beyond the post-pandemic lurches from fully remote to “everyone back in the office” and create the space to re-imagine what productive work as collaborative teams could look like.
Then look backwards and think about how much has really changed in the last five years. We realise that things aren’t that different — they’re just cheaper, more readily available, stable and less likely to cause problems. The pace of invention and possibility is always faster than the adoption and reality.
With that in mind, these are the three things that I’m predicting:
1) We need to become better at a process of unlearn and new learn. Letting go of things which have worked for us in the past and being prepared to start from a different perspective to the one we currently have.
Ask: knowing what I know now, what is the problem I’m trying to solve and how would I start?
2) There is a need to have strong convictions and provide clarity about the future, hold to them loosely and invest in ability to change when needed. Being informed by data in near-real-time will means we challenged more often. There should also be the loose coupling between skills and job titles.
Ask: what am I holding to which is no longer useful and has the potential to block change and agility from others?
3) Invest in meta. No, not the formally Facebook Inc. but the things that you need to have to support change and create adaptability. We tend to rush from know-about to know-how without creating the ability to do that repeatably in different situations. That then becomes the barrier to being able to move to know-do because real life is never like the learning environment. If we invest in ourselves and our ability to grow, then we can create the space to move beyond know-do towards know-why. The ‘why’ something works is critical to being able to transfer knowledge and skills to new environments.
Ask: what can I do which will better prepare me to respond to the future however that looks?
I leave you with a final question from a friend last night — in 12 months from now what do you want to look back and celebrate achieving?
